IREN
An independent model built to understand how capacity, contracts, financing and dilution can affect IREN’s development and valuation.
Ludvik Gudbrandsen · 6 min read · Last updated 16 Aug 2026
Summary
- Project-based model of IREN with scenarios for AI Cloud, data center capacity, Bitcoin mining, financing, dilution and valuation.
- Six scenarios, from Worst to Extreme Bull, show how different assumptions affect the valuation.
- The valuation uses P/S and EV/EBITDA, with a detailed main model and a separate scenario setup.
- The model produces model results and implied valuation ranges, not a recommendation or a price target.
About the model
The model is built on a project basis, starting from how IREN’s capacity, contracts, financing and dilution can develop over time. The aim has been to understand what drives the valuation, not to arrive at a recommendation.
What the model covers
AI Cloud and data center capacity.
Bitcoin mining.
Project-based ARR and revenue.
EBITDA assumptions.
Financing and dilution.
Net debt and net cash position.
Valuation on P/S and EV/EBITDA.
Six scenarios: Worst, Conservative, Base, Base with further expansion, Bull and Extreme Bull.
Two views in the workbook
The workbook contains both a detailed project-based main model and a separate, standardized scenario setup. The two views serve different purposes and are therefore not intended to produce identical results.
Method and sources
The model is based primarily on IREN’s own reports, SEC filings, investor presentations and the company’s public updates. Publicly reported facts and independent model assumptions have been kept clearly separate wherever possible.
- 01IREN’s annual and quarterly reports (SEC filings).
- 02IREN’s investor presentations and public company updates.
Disclaimer
The analysis has been prepared independently as part of personal work, based on publicly available information and independent financial models.
The model may contain scenario-based valuation outcomes and implied share values. These are model results, not investment advice, recommendations or formal price targets.
The model may contain errors, and the scenarios and implied values may change as new facts emerge. Readers must make their own assessments.
Download
Ludvik_Gudbrandsen_IREN_Valuation_Model_2026-08-06.xlsx
Excel · 0.1 MB · 6 Aug 2026
Download Excel model